美联储降息25个基点，声明全文

当地时间11月7日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.5%-4.75%，为年内第二次降息，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在利率声明中称，委员会认为实现就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡，经济前景存在不确定性，委员会关注实现双重使命所面临的风险。

尽管决策者们指出在实现通胀目标方面 “取得进展”，但他们删掉了关于“对通胀率可持续迈向2%变得更有信心”的内容。美联储声明称，自今年早些时候以来，劳动力市场状况总体上有所缓和，失业率上升但仍处于低位。委员们一致同意此次的利率决定。（上次会议为11-1）

降息决定发布后，美国利率期货市场预计美联储12月还将降息25个基点。

以下是美联储在华盛顿发布的联邦公开市场委员会政策声明全文：

近期指标显示，经济活动继续稳步扩张。自今年早些时候以来，劳动力市场状况大体有所缓和，失业率上升但维持在低位。通胀朝着委员会2%的目标取得了进展，但在某种程度上依然高企。

委员会力求实现充分就业以及通胀率在较长期内达到2%。委员会判断实现其就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡。经济前景存在不确定性，委员会关注其双重使命所面临的双向风险。

为了支持其目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至4.5%-4.75%。在考虑对联邦基金利率的目标区间进行额外调整时，委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险的平衡。委员会将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。委员会坚定致力于支持充分就业以及让通胀回归其2%的目标。

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测后续信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括劳动力市场状况指标、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际动态的数据。

投票赞成此次货币政策行动的委员包括：主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，副主席John C． Williams，Thomas I． Barkin，Michael S． Barr，Raphael W． Bostic，Michelle W． Bowman，Lisa D． Cook，Mary C． Daly，Beth M． Hammack，Philip N． Jefferson，Adriana D． Kugler和Christopher J． Waller。

以下为英文版全文：

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.

美联储主席鲍威尔讲话要点：

①利率决议方面，美联储并不急于达到中性利率，美联储可以更慢或更快地调整政策限制；加息并非美联储的计划。随着官员们将货币政策立场转向中性，尚未就将在12月采取何种政策行动做出决定。货币政策的步伐和目标可能会发生变化。不希望提供过多的前瞻性指引。

②通胀方面，通胀数据虽然并不糟糕，但高于预期；继续对通过调整政策立场，通胀将持续下降至2%保持信心。高通胀已大幅缓解，劳动力市场依然稳健；低通胀也可能成为一个问题；没有计划让通胀低于2%。

③经济方面，整体经济表现强劲，对经济活动的整体情况感到乐观；人们认为明年经济可能会比今年更强劲。经济面临的一些下行风险已经减弱。

④财政政策方面，美国的财政路径不可持续。目前美联储并未对潜在的财政政策变化进行建模。

⑤大选方面，短期内，选举不会对政策决定产生任何影响；如果被要求辞职，其本人不会辞职。不会谈论与选举相关的任何事项。

（转自：数据GO）